TOCSIN PROJECT

This research evaluates climate change mitigation options in China and India and the conditions for a strategic cooperation on RD&D and technology transfer with EU. This project will identify and assess technology options that might significantly reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in China and India in key sectors (i.e. power generation, transport, agriculture, and heavy industry). It will also define the necessary institutional and organizational architecture that would stimulate technological cooperation. The research will emphasize the strategic dimension of RD&D cooperation, and the key role of creating incentives for the participation of developing countries (DCs) in post-2012 GHG emissions reduction strategies and technological cooperation. Finally it will evaluate how the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and international emission trading (IET) might improve the attractiveness of new energy technology options for DCs, and thus contribute to stimulate RD&D cooperation and technology transfers toward China and India.

The research will be structured around the use of an ensemble of models that will be coupled together via advanced large scale mathematical programming techniques

  • 1. World and regional (i.e. China and India) MARKAL/TIMES bottom-up techno-economic models permitting a global assessment of technology options in different regions of the world;
  • 2. a CGE multi-country and multi-region model of the world economy (GEMINI-E3) that includes a representation of developing countries' economies (i.e. China and India) permitting an assessment of welfare, terms of trade and emissions trading effects;
  • 3. a multi-region integrated model (WITCH) representing the effect on economic growth of technology competition in a global climate change mitigation context;
  • 4. a game theoretic framework that will be implemented to analyze self-enforcing agreements (i.e. agreements that the signatories stick to even in the absence of a higher authority able to deter non-compliance) regarding abatement commitment and technological cooperation.

OBJECTIVE

In recent years a large number of bilateral agreements on technology and scientific cooperation have been signed involving many countries worldwide. For example, the European Union cooperates on international scientific policy with almost 30 countries. As agreed at the Annual EU-China Summit (5 September 2005, Beijing), the EU and China Partnership on Climate Change will strengthen cooperation and dialogue on climate change and energy between the EU and China. One major objective of this Partnership is the development and demonstration of advanced, "zero emission" coal technology based on carbon dioxide capture and geological storage.
It will also promote the deployment and dissemination of other clean energy sources, as well as energy efficiency, energy conservation, and renewable energy. At the EU-India Summit (7 September 2005, New Delhi), India and the EU agreed to launch an EU-India Initiative on Clean Development and Climate Change. The Initiative was launched as part of the Political Declaration on the India-EU Strategic Partnership.

The Declaration was taken further in a Joint Action Plan where both sides agreed to identify and develop ways of widening access and overcoming the barriers to dissemination of carbon-saving energy technologies in India and the EU and more widely; to increase funding and promote public-private partnerships for research and development of cleaner technologies; to promote adaptive research and development to suit the resource endowment of both parties; to reduce the price gap between "cleaner" and "less efficient" technologies by seeking economies of scale; to hold experts' meetings on climate change, including on the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in 2005. There is therefore an increasing focus on technology as the main way to address the climate change problem, particularly in the long-run. And it is also clear that international cooperation can help develop and disseminate climate-friendly technologies.

 

OBJECTIVES OF RESEARCH

The main objective of this research is to assess the benefits and costs of possible self-enforcing technology-based international agreements involving the EU, China and India with the aim of stabilizing the long term atmospheric concentrations of GHGs. The specific objectives of the project are:

  • To provide a detailed description of the available energy/technology options that might significantly reduce GHG emissions in China and India and their relative costs in comparison with EU and other OECD members (the possibility of endogenous technological learning (ETL) and the competition for innovation, expected in a world adapting to a new technology environment, being also analyzed).
  • To define the possible self-enforcing international agreements on GHG emission abatement, taking into account their economic impacts, including terms of trade changes, as well as the possible gains of multilateral and bilateral collaborations, Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) and international emission trading (IET) in order to stimulate RD&D cooperation and technology transfers toward China and India.
  • To promote capacity building for modeling activities in China and India. Researchers from China and India who joined this project will benefit from high level scientific cooperation with leading European researchers and will develop databases and models for China and India that will be fully compatible with the most recent developments in EU and America concerning BU and TD modeling for energy-environment policy analysis. This ensemble of compatible models will be of great help for the development of a consistent dialogue between the parties in post-Kyoto negotiations.

PARTICIPANTS