Scenario simulations

Four groups (coalitions) of countries

(GEMINI-E2 grouping)

IC1 IC2 NIC DCs
  • USA
  • Canada
  • Australia
  • New Zealand
  • EU-25
  • Switzerland
  • Norway
  • Japan
  • Russia
  • XEU
  • China
  • Brasil
  • Mexico
  • Venezuela
  • Turkey
  • MiddleEast
  • Africa
  • India
  • ODA
  • XSU
  • Latin America
  • Asia
  • One considers the time horizon 2005-2050 and one identifies the total amount of GHG emissions, at world level, that is compatible with maintaining the SAT increase below 2°C. This global budget has been evaluated to be 519 GtC equiv.
  • One distributes this global amount among the different parties in an international agreement. One may expect that this distribution of effort will be the key element in the forthcoming climate negotiations.
  • For a given split of the total GHG emissions allowance, one solves a dynamic non-cooperative game where the decision variables are the schedules of supply of GHG quotas and payoffs are welfare gains (or loss).
  • The equilibrium solutions must respect the allocated cumulative emissions budget.



Simulations-1: Global safety emissions budget (2005-2050).

Description: limitation of the radiative forcing to 3.5 W/m2 or 4.5 W/m2

Model used: TIAM.

Results obtained: 519 GtC to split between different groups of countries

Click here to go to the interactive scenario exploration page



Simulations-2: Split of the total budget according to different equity rules

Description: Apply a set of equity rules, like "grandfathering", "population", C&C, or mixtures of these rules to obtain different splits of the total amount of 519 GTC among the different coalitions.

Results obtained: summarized by the following figure



Model used: TIAM / WITCH.

Click here to go to the interactive scenario exploration page



Simulations-3: Global emission schedules and carbon prices.

Description: Global emissions and carbon prices, per period, for each of the different scenarios.

Results obtained: summarized by the following figures


Equilibrium total emissions in Mt of Carbon equiv


Equilibrium carbon prices according to different equilibrium solutions in $ per ton of carbon

Model used: OBOT / GEMINI-E3.

Click here to go to the GHG World Emissions (in GT equiv carbone) interactive scenario exploration page
Click here to go to the CO2 Taxes (in dollar per Ton of CO2)interactive scenario exploration page



Simulations-4: Welfare gains or losses.

Description: Discounted sum of surplus / discounted sum of household consumption for each coalition.

Results obtained: summarized by the following figures


Welfare gains or losses for different equilibrium solutions

Model used: OBOT / GEMINI-E3.

Click here to go to the interactive scenario exploration page



Simulations-5: A welfare gains balancing split.

Description: Search for a split of the global safety emissions budget which minimizes the maximum of welfare losses among different coalitions.

Results obtained: summarized by the following figures


Allocation which tends to equalize surplus losses in % of Household Final Consumption:
Split of total budget



Welfare gains or losses for different equilibrium solutions

Model used: OBOT / GEMINI-E3.

Click here to go to the interactive scenario exploration page





Contraction and Convergence [C&C] is the name of the global GHG emissions-management-model introduced by GCI to the UNFCCC negotiation in 1996. Some currect information about the origins, meaning and application of C&C are at these links:

www.tangentfilms.com/GCIEAC10nov09.pdf
www.gci.org.uk/briefings/ICE.pdf